The City Council speaker, Christine C. Quinn, remains the front-runner among Democrats pursuing the mayor’s seat, but her support among New Yorkers fell to its lowest level in five months, according to a poll released on Wednesday.
The change is not statistically significant: 32 percent of registered Democrats said they favored Ms. Quinn in the Democratic primary, compared with 37 percent six weeks ago.
And those who drifted from Ms. Quinn’s camp did not appear to be settling on an alternative candidate, with the numbers for her three major rivals barely changing from the previous survey.
The poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University from April 3 to 8, suggests that voters’ impressions of the candidates have remained relatively stable even as the pace of campaigning begins to pick up.
“There’s not much mystery about this race: it’s Christine Quinn and the other guys,†said Maurice Carroll, the director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “It’s hers to lose. But that doesn’t mean she’s got it sewed up, by a long shot.â€
Support for Ms. Quinn’s closest Democratic rival, Bill de Blasio, the public advocate, remained at 14 percent of Democratic voters, unchanged from the previous Quinnipiac poll in late February. William C. Thompson Jr., a former city comptroller, was supported by 13 percent of Democratic voters, and John C. Liu, the current city comptroller, by 7 percent.
On the Republican side, a majority of voters continued to profess ignorance about the candidates in the race. Joseph J. Lhota, the former chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, has the highest name recognition â€" but 54 percent of Republican voters said they did not know enough about him to form an opinion.
Mr. Carroll laughed when asked about the Republican candidates. “At this stage of the game, forget ’em!†he said, although he noted that a different story line could emerge in the general election, where the Democratic candidate has been defeated in the past five races.
Mr. Lhota retains the most support among the Republican mayoral hopefuls, with 23 percent of G.O.P. voters saying they supported him, the same share as in the last Quinnipiac poll about the Republican mayoral primary, which was released in January. George T. McDonald, an advocate for the homeless, saw his support increase to 11 percent from 2 percent, and John Catsimatidis, a billionaire grocer, was supported by 8 percent of Republican voters.
Mr. Carroll noted that, as of now, the Democratic primary appeared headed to a runoff, which takes place if no candidate gets 40 percent of the vote. The primary is Sept. 10, and a runoff would be held Sept. 24.
“The question was, could she keep this relentless move up to 40, and it looks as if it’s not relentless,†Mr. Carroll said of Ms. Quinn. “It’s not a good thing to happen to you, obviously. But it’s only April.â€
The poll was conducted by telephone of 925 Democratic voters and 188 Republican voters in New York City; the margin of sampling error among the Democrats was plus or minus 3 percentage points, while the margin among Republicans was 7 percentage points.
