India's monsoon is lagging, confronting the country with its third possible drought in the past decade, and the rainfall deficit is further weakening an Indian economy already wobbling from a slowdown.
With India's Meteorological Department recording rainfall shortages across the country, several ratings agencies and financial analysts have sharply downgraded an Indian economy once projected to grow by more than 7 percent this year. This week, CRISIL, a research and ratings organization, cut India's G.D.P. growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 5.5 percent, blaming the weak monsoon and projecting that the agriculture sector would not grow at all.
“We are now dealing with a dangerous scenario of low growth and high inflation,†said Dharmakirti Joshi, the agency's chief economist. Not to mention shrinking industrial output after Thursday's economic numbers showed that industrial production contracted in J une.
India's last drought came in 2009, but the broader economy was shielded because of government stimulus measures intended to offset the global financial meltdown. “This time, India is already fiscally stretched, and the possibility of a generous stimulus package is limited,†Mr. Joshi said.
India, once a nation of farmers, now has an economy led by the manufacturing and service sectors. Agriculture now accounts for only 15 percent of the country's G.D.P., yet farming remains a critical sector because roughly half of India's population continues to work in the fields. Moreover, a weak monsoon can create a pernicious cycle: lower rural incomes means lower rural demand, while a smaller crop can fuel inflation.
Ashok Gulati, head of India's Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, said production of food grains is likely to be down 10 million to 15 million tons, especially the output of coarse cereals, pulses and oilse eds grown in the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Maharashtra.
The Indian monsoon traditionally begins in June and continues through September. This year, meteorologists are projecting that total rainfall will be 15 percent below the long-term average, with some regions suffering severe drought, including Punjab, western Rajasthan and Gujarat, and others experiencing floods.
Weather officials don't expect much improvement in coming weeks. Rains are gradually picking up in some parts of the country, but the worst-affected areas are not likely to see much help.
In late July, a high-powered government panel announced a relief package of 20 billion rupees ($360 million) for rain-starved states and expanded subsidies on diesel fuel and seeds. “Basically, three major stakeholders need to be protected: farmers, agricultural laborers and the consumers,†said Mr. Gulati.
The recurrence of droughts has inspired research on how to be better prepar ed in the future. Agricultural scientists in Hyderabad have spent two years preparing customized contingency plans for every district and subdistrict in India. These plans assess local soil and irrigation capacity and offer detailed guidance for what farmers should do if the monsoons are delayed, deficient or haphazard.
“The plans tell farmers what to sow or what agricultural methods to use if the monsoons are delayed by two weeks, by four weeks, by six weeks,†said B. Venkateshwarulu, director of the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, which is overseeing the project. “They guide farmers on a scientific and systematic basis so that the impact of a drought is reduced.â€
So far, plans have been drafted for half of India's 640 districts. Civil servants and agricultural scientists are working to distribute the plans to farmers by using text messages, advertisements in local newspapers and notices on public buildings.
Already these plans are being used in some regions. In Gujarat's Banaskantha district, which has received some rain, farmers are being advised to plant castor seeds, which can flourish if it rains in August, and to implement the technique of mulching.
“We didn't have any of these solutions before. If the rains failed, the crop failed,†said 45-year-old farmer Vadibhai Patel, who has a 15-acre lot and has been farming for over two decades.
Yet planning can only do so much. In the coastal section of Gujarat known as the Kutch, drought conditions are among the worst in the country. Farmers, many of whom have invested heavily in seeds and fertilizers, have not even sown their crops. “How can we help them when there is not even a drop of rainfall?†said Ami Haji Sipai, an associate research scientist with the government-run Sardarkrushinagar Dantiwada Agricultural University in Gujarat. Farmers are currently surviving by selling cow and buffalo milk.
Ultimately, analysts sa y India needs to invest in research to create drought-resistant seeds, improve water management practices and expand irrigation facilities. “Till then,†said Mr. Patel, “we will need relief from the government when the rains betray us.â€
