New York Today: Wisdom of the Groundhog

Annie Correal/The New York Times Chuck may know what the weatherman does not.

O.K., granted: So far, Chuck the Groundhog has been right.

Twelve inches of snow has fallen on the city since Chuck saw his shadow at the Staten Island Zoo last Sunday.

But when it comes to long-range forecasting, do you trust a groundhog?

Or a bunch of scientists with radar and satellites and fancy computer models?

Let’s compare their track records.

The National Weather Service’s one-month and three-month forecasts for the Northeast are 25 to 35 percent more accurate than mere historic averages of temperature and precipitation.

“There’s some value added,” said Jon Gottschalck of the service’s Climate Prediction Center. “I hope we do better than the rodent.”

Well.

Chuck has been right 25 of the last 32 years, the Staten Island Zoo said.

That’s 78 percent accuracy. And he’s on a four-year winning streak.

The weather service agrees with Chuck this year, at least for the near term.

For the next week, it’s calling for temperatures 10 degrees below normal.

The week after that, the service predicts significant likelihood of low temperatures and above-average precipitation.

Then the crystal ball gets fuzzy.

“Equal chances” of cold or warm, dry or snowy, their models say.

But as he sleeps in the warmth of his burrow, waiting for the scent of spring to awaken him, Chuck knows.

Here’s what else you need to know for Friday and the weekend.

WEATHER

A little chilly but not bad: sunny with a high of 33.

Skies may look threatening for much of the weekend, and a few flakes may fall.

But so far the two-legged forecasters predict no measurable snow.

COMMUTE

Subways: Check latest status.

Rails: Check L.I.R.R., Metro-North or New Jersey Transit status.

Roads: Check traffic map or radio report on the 1s or the 8s.

Alternate-side parking is suspended, maintaining its perfect record for the week.

Weekend Travel Hassles: Check subway disruptions or list of street closings.

COMING UP TODAY

- At 10 a.m., Mayor de Blasio donates blood. He’s hoping you do, too, as supplies are running low. Here’s how.

- After his post-bloodletting cookie, the mayor makes an announcement at noon, then receives members of Pussy Riot at City Hall in the evening.

- The five borough presidents discuss the city’s future at a breakfast panel at New York Law School at 8:15 a.m. Watch live.

- Learn sales strategies from the experts: Girl Scouts. They offer advice while dealing cookies at Grand Central’s Vanderbilt Hall from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. [Free]

- Elmo dispenses Valentine gifts, cards and furry hugs to military children at Fort Hamilton in Brooklyn at 10 a.m.

- Fashion Week is now in full effect. Our colleagues in the Styles section have a helpful guide to today’s action.

- Celebrations of the 50th anniversary of the Beatles’ landing in New York abound. A historical marker will be unveiled at Kennedy Airport at 11:30 a.m. …

- … The exhibit “Ladies and Gentlemen…The Beatles!” is on at the Public Library for the Performing Arts at Lincoln Center… [Free]

- … and the weekend-long “Fest for Beatles Fans” opens at the Grand Hyatt on East 42nd Street at 5 p.m. [$65 and up]

- A Greenpoint gallery stroll from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. takes in a dozen art spots. [Free]

- For more events, see The New York Times Arts & Entertainment guide.

- And if you’re looking for fun outside New York City this weekend, The Times’s Metropolitan section has suggestions for Westchester, Long Island, New Jersey and Connecticut.

IN THE NEWS

- Snows of opportunity: the city has hired 1,800 temporary shovelers. [New York Times]

- All this snow is also good for showing where new public spaces could be carved out of city streets. [This Old City]

- Two Brooklyn men walked free after serving more than 20 years for murders they did not commit. [New York Times]

- A proposed 250-mile pipeline would move natural gas fracked in other states across upstate New York to New England. [Capital New York]

- Ralph Kiner, feared slugger and beloved broadcast voice of the Mets, died at 91. [New York Times]

- A look back at the 1940s and ’50s, when acres and acres of marijuana grew in New York City. [NY1]

- A new weekly Times column, “Two Good Reasons,” offers rationales for visiting the Gowanus section of Brooklyn.

- Scoreboard: Nets jolt Spurs, 103-89. Rangers fall to Oilers, 2-1. Islanders succumb to Flames, 4-2.

Joseph Burgess and Annie Correal contributed reporting.

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