While parts of India struggle with crop failures and water shortages after a weak monsoon, the northeastern states of Sikkim and Assam have been hit by heavy rains and flash floods that have caused landslides and claimed at least 27 lives in recent days.
Continuous heavy rainfall last week, from Wednesday to Sunday, has caused “enormous†damage, according to statements issued by the Sikkim government. Sikkim has had a total of 20 deaths including 12 members of the Border Roads Organization, one soldier from the Indo-Tibetan Border Police, or I.T.B.P., and three relatives of border police, said S.B.S. Bhadauria, the relief commissioner of Sikkim, on Monday.
“It was a flash flood in a small drain which passes through the middle of the I.T.B.P. battalion headquarters,†in northern Sikkim, said Deepak Kumar Pandey, spokesman for the Indo-Tibetan Border Police.
Mr. Pandey said there was a massive downpour at midday on Friday over the headquarters. “It killed one of our soldiers and three family members,†he said. “Many others were also swept away by water but rescued later.â€
The region is now largely cut off from the rest of India because of the flooding and landslides, which have closed roads. The state government in Sikkim said the army is helping in relief and rescue operations, and the Indian Air Force, the Indian Army and the state government have sent helicopters.
“It is not raining today, but we are facing problems of road connectivity, water supply and electric supply in the north district,†Mr. Bhadauria said in a phone interview. “It will take at least one month to re store the road connections to the rest of Indiaâ€, he said, based an aerial survey of the region that shows that the roads have sustained substantial damage. Landslides have taken place at over 100 locations, some of them of considerable size, he said.
The meteorological department in Sikkim said it had issued warnings of heavy rainfall on Sept. 17. “The eastern end of the monsoon draft shifted toward the north from its normal position, which caused flash floods in the northeast for the last five to seven days,†said Gopi Nath Raha, a senior meteorologist at the Meteorological Center in Gangtok, in a phone interview.
The rain has been especially heavy in northern Sikkim, in Mangan and Chungthang, according to the Meteorological Center.
Mr. Raha said that while it was possible to predict rainfall patterns, the center could not predict flash floods. “We can only issue a warning for heavy rainfall; the relief and disaster management is in the hands of t he state government,†he said.
In Assam, the flood has affected nearly 1.3 million people, spread across 1,972 villages, according to Nandita Hazarika, deputy secretary of the state disaster management department. Seven people have been reported dead so far. The state disaster management department is running 166 relief camps, which now house over 200,000 people, and can reach some areas only by boat.
“The rains are decreasing now, but today's forecast in Arunachal Pradesh is 90 millimeters (3.5 inches) of rainfall,†said Ms. Hazarika in a phone interview. “That water will eventually come to Assam and increase the water levels. We are preparing for that.â€
Landlocked northeast India is prone to floods from June to September, when the monsoon rains typically fall. In June, flooding in the state of Assam affected nearly two million people, leaving at least 77 dead and inundating around 2,080 villages. The flooding was said to be the most severe in ov er a decade and revived the controversial debate about controlling the Brahmaputra River, which runs through the state.
Sanjoy Hazarika, who is the director of the Center for North East Studies at Jamia Millia Islamia in New Delhi, said one critical issue in flood preparation is whether China has been sharing meteorological data with the Indian meteorological department and whether that information is being conveyed to state departments to help disaster management efforts.
He also said that the release of water from upstream dams without informing people downstream and the effect of climate change on the glacial melt may be contributing to the frequent floods.
Predicting the monsoon rainfall in South Asia remains a challenge, even though the survival of crops and livestock and the nourishment of millions depend on it. The shortcomings of the India's meteorological department have led to private companies entering the localized weather forecasting market, ac cording to news reports.
