As the eagerly-awaited elections in Gujarat draw closer, there is a growing sense that a real political battle is brewing in the west Indian state.
The state has been dominated by the Bharatiya Janata Party since 1995 and governed by Narendra Modi for a decade. He won a decisive victory in 2007, but some analysts believe that the assembly elections, expected to be held in December, may not be an easy win for Mr. Modi and his party. The elections are being closely watched as an indication of Mr. Modi's prospects if he becomes the party's candidate for prime minister in 2014, as many political analysts expect.
While the Modi-led government has trumpeted the state's economic successes, including at tracting domestic and international companies including Tata Motors and Ford, resentment is brewing in some corners. The government has been unable to curtail rising prices of commodities, while appearing to spend lavishly on events like Vibrant Gujarat, an investment summit, and the Sadbhavana Fast, a one-day rally.
“The government already earns a lot,†said Jayesh Makwana of Ahmedabad, a self-employed mason in his 50s. “The establishment of many industries and multinationals may have inundated its coffers. But what benefits are they to the people of Gujarat?â€
A recent court verdict that found Maya Kodnani, a former minister in the B.J.P. government, and Babu Bajrangi, a Hindu nationalist activist, guilty of murder and conspiracy in the 2002 Gujarat riots has also threatened Mr. Modi's campaign. Further complicating the election, a third of the 182 constituencies have been redrawn or reorganized.
Mr. Modi kicked off hi s campaign last week with a month long Vivekananda Yuva Vikas yatra, or political march, from the temple town Bahucharaji, in Mehsana district. Mr. Modi, who is riding in the same bus the senior B.J.P. official L.K. Advani used for his anti-corruption march last year, will address over 150 political rallies all over the state.
Addressing a rally in Rajkot this week, Mr. Modi took a shot at the man likely to be his opponent in 2014, the Congress Party youth leader Rahul Gandhi, and alluded to his own ambitions.
The Congress Party says “Rahul Gandhi is a national leader while Modi is only a state level leader,†Mr. Modi said. “I think they are right. Rahul Gandhi is not just a national leader, he is an international leader. He is India's as well as Italy's leader.â€
The normally pro-business Mr. Modi has also criticized the central government's recent decision to allow foreign retailers like Wal-Mart into India, saying they would destroy the country's trade and industry and the increase the problem of unemployment manifold.
The Congress Party is campaigning fiercely in Gujarat on development issues and has already promised low-cost housing to poor and working women, including free land, and free laptops to all students who enter college. Congress officials say that their party has already secured many votes, pointing to the 2.5 million forms for its housing project that have been already distributed.
“This government hasn't done anything for the poor while always giving a red-carpet welcome and five-star treatment to industrialists,†the senior Congress leader Narhari Amin, a contender for chief minister's post, said in an interview.
Mr. Modi, on the other hand, “just doesn't care for the poor,†he said, charging that the Gujarat Housing Board hasn't come up with a single new residential project in the years Mr. Modi has been chief minister.
“People aren't only disillusioned but also fed up with the Modi government,†Mr. Amin said. “We meet people in every nook and cranny of Gujarat and we see for ourselves how miserable, frustrated and angry they are.â€
The election battle in Gujarat is further complicated because it isn't just between Congress and the B.J.P. Keshubhai Patel, a former Gujarat chief minister, severed relations with the B.J.P. in August and formed the Gujarat Parivartan Party, contending that under Mr. Modi the B.J.P.had become a “one many party†that strayed from its principles.
Mr. Patel, 83, struck an aggressive tone last week, vowing to correct the “injustice meted out to Gujarat†by the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government running the country, while also criticizing Mr. Modi's campaign.
Mr. Patel, who represents the influential Patidar ethnic community in Gujarat, won't be a threat to Congress, Mr. Amin said. “He is out just to oust Modi,†he said.
To counter the Congress housing pr oject proposal, the B.J.P. said in August that it would construct 6,500 affordable houses and immediately revived the long-defunct Gujarat Housing Board. Jayshree Patel, president of the B.J.P. Women's Cell, denied Congress Party accusations that the B.J.P. has neglected the poor, saying that the Gujarat government had built 325,000 houses for the indigent between 2001 and 2011.
B.J.P. officials scoff at the idea that Mr. Modi's popularity is on the wane. Congress leaders are “trying to fool people by spreading all sorts of canards about Modi,†said Raju Dhruv, a B.J.P. spokesman from Rajkot. “The B.J.P. under Modi has done so much constructive work for all classes of people, and you can't ignore it by just talking nonsense.â€
Vijay Rupani, state B.J.P. general secretary and former member of Parliament, said Mr. Modi's “sincerity, dedication, courage for convictions and vast contribution in the development of the state can't and won't be ignored by the p eople of Gujarat.â€
“Under Modi's able leadership, B.J.P. will regain power in Gujarat with full majority,†he said.
As for the former B.J.P. stalwart Mr. Patel, “I feel pity for him,†Mr. Rupani said. “Where was he all these years?â€
Not a single B.J.P. worker or leader has joined Mr. Patel's party, Mr. Rupani said. “As a senior leader, he should have helped Modi function the government better instead of deserting the party and making a mockery of himself at this age,†he said.
